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Growing apprehensions are present over the possibility of armed conflict between Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the both governments have frequently been strained. After a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict started in which more than 100,000 people died.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and suggested the wish to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Answer to the Claims

In the face of continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been restricted to concise remarks on X from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for maritime entry labeling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Border

There have been no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast completion events of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The leader of human resources department of the defense force, the officer, stated recently in an conversation that the military was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

After World War II, it was then controlled by the British administration before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler ended this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A extended armed struggle followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, causing hostilities in 1998.

Although this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a declaration that the conflict was finished – a move that earned Abiy the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in the northern region.

However diplomatic connections have since broken down once more.