Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
