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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd